Наталья Ключевская
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Соответствующее решение регулятор принял сегодня, о чем сообщает пресс-служба Банка России.
Ранее ключевая ставка была установлена на уровне 7,75% – такой ее размер действовал полгода (с 17 декабря 2018 года). Теперь же начиная с 17 июня (понедельник) ключевая ставка будет снижена на 0,25% – до 7,5% годовых. Такое уменьшение стало возможным в связи с продолжением замедления годовой инфляции, смягчением денежно-кредитных условий и снижением краткосрочных проинфляционных рисков.
Банк России проанализировал динамику инфляции, денежно-кредитные условия, экономическую активность и оценил инфляционные риски. Анализ показал, что годовой темп прироста потребительских цен в мае снизился до 5,1% (с 5,2% в апреле 2019 года) и, по оценке на 10 июня, составил 5%. При этом с февраля месячные темпы прироста потребительских цен с исключением сезонности находятся вблизи 4% в годовом выражении. Ожидается, что последний показатель не изменится и в дальнейшем. В целом же с учетом проводимой денежно-кредитной политики регулятор снизил прогноз годовой инфляции по итогам 2019 года с 4,7-5,2% до 4,2-4,7%.
Что касается экономической активности, то рост экономики в первом полугодии текущего года складывается ниже ожиданий Банка России. С учетом сформированной Росстатом статистики по динамике ВВП регулятор снизил прогноз темпа прироста ВВП в 2019 году с 1,2-1,7 до 1,0-1,5%. «В последующие годы возможно повышение темпов экономического роста по мере реализации национальных проектов», – отмечается в пресс-релизе.
Также подчеркивается, что при развитии ситуации в соответствии с базовым прогнозом возможно дальнейшее снижение ключевой ставки на одном из ближайших заседаний Совета директоров (следующее заседание по вопросу размера ключевой ставки состоится 26 июля 2019 года) и переход к нейтральной денежно-кредитной политике до середины 2020 года.
Добавим, в системе ГАРАНТ вы можете воспользоваться калькулятором расчета процентов (пени) по ключевой ставке Банка России. С его помощью можно рассчитать не только проценты, установленные в размере доли от ключевой ставки Банка России за каждый день просрочки, но и проценты (пени, штрафы), ставка которых кратна ключевой ставке.
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